Pork Prices Set to Rise as Disease Outbreaks Constrain Supply

South African consumers and retailers can expect further increases in pork prices in the coming months as the impact of African swine fever (ASF) and foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks tightens supply across the formal market.

This follows recent communication to the trade from the South African Pork Producers’ Organisation (SAPPO), detailing the extent of disease outbreaks affecting commercial piggeries in the Free State, North West, KwaZulu-Natal and north-east of Pretoria.

Arnold Prinsloo, CEO of Eskort – South Africa’s leading antibiotic-free pork producer – says the pork market is highly sensitive to even small supply disruptions.

“South Africa slaughters roughly 72,000 pigs per week across the formal and informal sectors. The formal market has lost approximately 7,000 pigs due to the combined impact of ASF and FMD outbreaks,” he says.

“While this represents a relatively small percentage of total supply, even a 2% shortage can drive price increases of around 10%. This is the reality of pork’s price elasticity.”

Pork prices have moved significantly in recent weeks, with wholesale prices rising from about R32 per kilogram to R40. Further increases are expected as the effects of disease outbreaks work through the supply chain.

“Until recently, we were able to hold prices stable because the industry had surplus stock that served as a buffer. That buffer has now been depleted, and we’re seeing the same supply-and-demand dynamics that recently affected the beef industry,” says Prinsloo.

Eskort, which accounts for about 10% of South Africa’s pork market, has had no cases of ASF or FMD among its farmers . The company attributes this to its world-class biosecurity protocols and antibiotic-free farming practices. However, Prinsloo says no producer is immune to market-wide pricing pressures.

“While our biosecurity measures have protected our operations to date, we remain vigilant. More importantly, even though Eskort has not lost animals to these diseases, we operate in a broader market where supply and demand determine pricing. When the overall supply contracts, it affects pricing across the board,” he says.

SAPPO has confirmed that all pork entering the market through formal channels remains safe for consumption, as ASF and FMD are animal health diseases that pose no risk to human health. Strict veterinary oversight and inspection protocols under the Meat Safety Act continue to ensure food safety.

The organisation is working closely with producers, abattoirs and state veterinary services to manage the outbreaks while maintaining market stability and consumer confidence.